The General Administration of Customs released import and export data on the 13th. In March this year, China’s total import and export value was 1.76 trillion yuan, down 13.5% from the same period of last year (the same below), of which exports were 886.83 billion yuan, down 14.6%; imports 8686.7 100 million yuan...
The General Administration of Customs released import and export data on the 13th. In March this year, China’s total import and export value was 1.76 trillion yuan, down 13.5% from the same period of last year (the same below), of which exports were 886.83 billion yuan, down 14.6%; imports were 868.67 billion. Yuan, down 12.3%. Industry experts said that import and export again had negative growth in March, which shows that China's current economic growth of domestic demand and external demand is insufficient, and the downward pressure on the economy is still very large. There is still uncertainty in China's export growth in the second quarter, and the pressure on completion of the target for the whole year has increased sharply. Under such a background, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs and other ministries will work together to stabilize foreign trade.
In the first quarter, the import and export decreased by 6%
After January, the import and export again fell again in March. The General Administration of Customs released import and export data on the 13th. In March this year, China’s total import and export value was 1.76 trillion yuan, down 13.5% from the same period of last year (the same below), of which exports were 886.83 billion yuan, down 14.6%; imports were 868.67 billion. Yuan, down 12.3%; trade surplus was 18.16 billion yuan, narrowing 62.6%.
It is worth noting that March's foreign trade data, especially export data, was significantly lower than industry expectations, after the industry generally expected exports to be positive growth in March. In dollar terms, exports fell by 15% in March, which is the lowest growth rate since September 2009. From the breakdown of data, China's exports to major exporting countries and regions fell across the board in March, and exports to the United States, the European Union, ASEAN, Japan, and Hong Kong fell by 8%, 19.1%, 9.3%, 24.8%, and 18.3%, respectively.
In the first quarter, according to customs statistics, China’s total import and export value was 5.54 trillion yuan, down 6%. Among them, exports were 3.15 trillion yuan, up 4.9%, imports were 2.39 trillion yuan, down 17.3%, and trade surplus was 755.33 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1 times.
From -3.2% to 48.9% to -14.6%, China's export growth rate in the first quarter of this year showed the same ups and downs as roller coasters. “The Spring Festival holiday factor is the main reason for the fluctuation of export growth in each month of the first quarter of this year.†Huang Junping, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs, said at the National New Office launch conference held on the same day.
He said that under normal circumstances, the foreign trade enterprises of our country have the habit of focusing on export before the Spring Festival and starting work after the first month of the first month, which in turn caused the phenomenon of large fluctuations in export growth in each month at the beginning of the year. This year's Spring Festival is about 20 days later than last year. The misplacement of the spring holiday makes the base of January and February larger than the same period, and the base year of February is too small. With the seasonal adjustment method to eliminate the holiday factors of the Spring Festival, China's exports fell by 4.4% in March.
"Although the overall import and export is declining, the quality and efficiency of foreign trade development has improved." Huang Yuping pointed out that from the import side, in the first quarter, the import performance of mechanical and electrical products was better than the overall import, maintaining a growth of 6.4%. This shows that our country is now paying more attention to the import of advanced technology, key equipment and important parts. At the same time, it is worth noting that the export growth rate of high-end manufacturing products such as transportation tools, mobile phones and metalworking machine tools is above 20%, and traditional labor-intensive products are also growing. The rapid growth of the export value of these products drove the overall growth rate of exports in the first quarter by 2.6 percentage points.
Prospects for the second quarter of the export is still good, there is still uncertainty
Obviously weaker than expected export performance, showing the current situation of the foreign trade is grim. Industry experts pointed out that even considering the seasonal factors, foreign trade in the first quarter is still relatively weak. According to expert analysis, the main reason for the decline in exports is that external demand has not recovered, the overall cost remains high, and the real effective exchange rate of the RMB has risen.
The first is the sluggish demand in the international market and the decrease in export orders. Huang Yuping pointed out that from the perspective of major markets, in addition to the relatively good performance of the US economy, the economic recovery of other export markets is still slow, the growth momentum of global trade is still insufficient, demand has not improved significantly, orders have decreased or maintained weak growth.
Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, said that the traditional labor-intensive processing industries in China are facing the pressure of industrial transformation and upgrading. The restrictive conditions of land cost, labor cost, resource and environmental constraints have led to the weakening of traditional export competitiveness. Customs surveys show that 56.2% of companies in March reported a year-on-year increase in total export costs.
In addition, Liu Xuezhi pointed out that although the renminbi has a certain depreciation pressure on the US dollar exchange rate, since the second half of last year, the renminbi has shown a sharp appreciation trend against other major currencies such as the euro and the yen. The continuous rise of the real effective exchange rate has weakened the competitiveness of export products. The formation of export growth rate is inhibited.
On the import side, Song Wei, director of the International Trade Research Office of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Economic Information Daily that the main impact was the low import prices of bulk commodities and the sluggish domestic demand.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the negative growth of import and export data in March reflects the current lack of domestic demand and external demand for China's economic growth, and the downward pressure on the economy remains high. As far as exports are concerned, it is still likely to continue to experience negative growth in the coming months. It is mainly subject to two factors: First, the global economic growth is weak. Except for the better performance of the US economy, the Eurozone and Japan are weak, and the growth of emerging market economies is slowing. Compared with last year, my foreign demand situation has not improved. Second, the sharp appreciation of the renminbi against non-US dollar currencies puts pressure on exports.
Minsheng's macro research team Guan Qingyou [microblogging] said that there is still uncertainty in the future of export growth. The total volume of global trade has stalled, and countries have begun to release water competition to seize the export share through currency depreciation. Future exports are still uncertain. Under the downward pressure of the economy, enterprises will still focus on raw material inventory, and the quantity of major commodities imported such as iron ore, coal and refined oil will not be ideal in the future.
According to the customs, in March this year, China's foreign trade export leading index fell back to 1.4 on the basis of a 1.0-month rebound in February, indicating that there is still uncertainty in China's exports in the second quarter of this year.
Measures, many ministries and commissions will work hard to stabilize foreign trade
In fact, since 2010, the growth rate of China's import and export trade has gradually declined, from double-digit growth rate to single-digit growth, and negative growth in some months, indicating that foreign trade has entered the new normal of low growth. . People in the industry have said that the data in the first quarter is not optimistic, which has led to a sharp increase in the target pressure of 6% growth in import and export this year.
Huang said that new trade formats such as cross-border e-commerce, market procurement trade and financial leasing will continue to flourish this year. The free trade pilot zone and the “Belt and Road†strategy will also accelerate implementation. These are all favorable factors for promoting China’s foreign trade development this year. However, it is undeniable that fundamental factors such as sluggish external demand, economic downturn, weakened export competitive advantages, and low commodity prices have created significant constraints on foreign trade development. "Overall, in the coming period, the situation faced by China's foreign trade import and export is generally severe and complicated. To achieve the expected growth target of foreign trade this year, we still need to work hard."
Huo Jianguo, a researcher at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told the reporter of the Economic Information Daily that it seems that the pressure on imports and exports this year is very high, and the downward pressure on internal economy is superimposed on external risks. China's foreign trade has entered a new normal conversion period. It is expected that with the improvement of the external environment and the effect of domestic policies, foreign trade will improve in the second half of the year, but it is still very difficult to complete the full-year target.
In this context, the "Economic Information Daily" reporter learned that this year the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs and other ministries will work together to stabilize foreign trade. On the one hand, we will continue to implement the State Council's opinions on stabilizing foreign trade growth. On the other hand, we will also formulate a new policy of stabilizing foreign trade growth and cultivating new advantages in foreign trade competition. The import of intermediate goods and the export of high value-added products are expected to usher in policy encouragement. Relevant policies will Officially introduced during the year.
Huang Yuping said that this year, the General Administration of Customs will push forward the reform of customs clearance integration across the country, and implement the "three mutualities", namely information exchange, mutual recognition of supervision, mutual assistance in law enforcement, and reform of the construction of large customs clearance. It will also promote a single window of international trade, deepen the cooperation of the Customs and the Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau, "three ones" (one declaration, one inspection, one release). Innovate the customs supervision system of the free trade pilot zone, speed up the integration and optimization of the special customs supervision area, promote the paperless reform of customs clearance, and comprehensively promote centralized and centralized taxation.
According to Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, this year the Ministry of Commerce will do a good job in stabilizing foreign trade from four aspects: First, continue to be firm and not shifting, and adjust the structure; second, effectively reduce the burden on enterprises. The third is to improve the external business environment of the enterprise, including properly handling trade frictions. Fourth, it is necessary to encourage enterprises to enhance their competitiveness through innovation and to create new advantages in international competition while consolidating their traditional advantages.
Song Wei said that since the beginning of this year, the state has successively introduced a series of measures to stabilize growth. If these policies are implemented, then it is believed that it will soon be effective. From the current point of view, stabilizing foreign trade has become an important part of steady economic growth. The foreign trade policy can continue to increase the code. While stabilizing growth, it also serves the direction of optimization of foreign trade structure, helping to change from “big progress and big exit†to “excellent and superiorâ€.
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