The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently released the 2010 Industrial Blue Book: China Industrial Competitiveness Report. For China's non-ferrous metals industry, the Blue Book analyzes that in the international market competition, the competitiveness of the non-ferrous metals industry is relatively weak; when the financial crisis strikes, it appears to be unsuitable. However, with the unveiling of industrial policies such as mergers and acquisitions of non-ferrous metal enterprises and elimination of outdated production capacities, the non-ferrous metals industry has gradually emerged from the financial crisis, showing good momentum of development.
According to the "National Economic Industry Classification," the non-ferrous metals industry includes nonferrous metal mining and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries.
Changes in competitiveness of non-ferrous metals industry analysis of international market share: China's lead, tin, zinc in the original international market share is high, but in recent years has been greatly reduced, aluminum and copper in the international market share rose first and then decline, but On the whole, it is still at a low level, and only nickel's international market share keeps rising. The international market share of the six non-ferrous metals was generally not very high. After reaching a high of 8.2% in 2004, it quickly declined. The market share in 2007 was only 4.1%, which was only half of 2007. The international market share of China's non-ferrous metals industry is not commensurate with China's position as the world's largest producer and consumer of non-ferrous metal products.
Trade competitiveness index: China's non-ferrous metals industry has a relatively low trade competitiveness index, except for 1990 and 1991 which are positive, and other years are negative, and remain at a relatively low level. Trade competitiveness in 2000 and 2001 The index is below -0.4, remained at -0.3 from 2002 to 2006, and dropped to -0.4 again in 2007. This shows that the international competitiveness of China's non-ferrous metals industry is still very weak.
Non-ferrous metals industry international competitiveness International market share: Russia, Canada, and Australia are the major exporters of non-ferrous metals products. Russia and Canada’s international market share generally exceeds 10%, and Australia’s international market share remains at around 8%. The international market share of China's non-ferrous metal products also has a certain scale, ranking before other major countries such as Brazil, Germany, and the United States. From the trend point of view, the international market share of the non-ferrous metals industry in most countries has remained stable, but China's international market share has been declining. This is in marked contrast to Japan's rising international market share.
Trade competitiveness index: Australia, Russia, Canada, South Africa and Brazil have significant trade competitiveness advantages. The trade competitiveness index of the United States, Japan, Germany, France, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and China is basically negative and does not have trade competitiveness. Advantage. Compared with other countries, China is in the middle. In recent years, the UK’s non-ferrous metals industry’s trade competitiveness index has continued to rise, while China’s has declined. In 2007, the British non-ferrous metals industry’s trade competitiveness index exceeded China for the first time. In terms of comprehensive international market share and trade competitiveness index, the non-ferrous metals industry in Russia, Canada, Australia, and Brazil and South Africa has strong international competitiveness. Non-ferrous metal industries in other major countries, including China, do not currently have International competitive advantage. On the whole, China's non-ferrous metals industry is in the mid-stream level in the international market competition, but compared with other countries, the international competitiveness of the non-ferrous metals industry has remained stable or rising. In recent years, the international competitiveness of China's non-ferrous metals industry has declined. It is a place that needs special attention.
The impact of the financial crisis on the competitiveness of the non-ferrous metals industry As outlined above, most indicators that reflect the competitiveness of the non-ferrous metals industry do not perform well. This is related to the long-standing exploration of mineral resources in the non-ferrous metals industry, lagging resources, low industrial concentration, overcapacity, extensive economic growth methods, and arduous tasks in energy conservation and emission reduction. In addition, non-ferrous metal products have special derivative financial commodity attributes, which makes the non-ferrous metal industry show severe inadequacies in the financial crisis.
First, the price of non-ferrous metal products has been significantly “divingâ€. According to the non-ferrous metal spot market monitoring of large and medium-sized cities, by the end of 2008, the average prices of copper, aluminum, and zinc were 29,574 yuan, 11,928 yuan, and 10,125 yuan per ton, respectively, a decrease of 51.42%, 35.34%, and 50.39 compared with the same period in 2007. %. Second, the output of non-ferrous metal products has grown slowly, and the growth rate of industrial added value has slowed down. According to statistics, from January to December 2008, the output growth of non-ferrous metal products fell sharply from month to month, even with negative growth. At the same time, the non-ferrous metal mining industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling and processing industries have also seen a significant drop in the added value of the above-scale enterprises, especially in November, the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by only 0.5. %. Third, the non-ferrous metals companies have increased their inventories, and their economic returns have fallen sharply. The deepening of the international financial crisis has caused a significant reduction in the import and export trade of the non-ferrous metals industry. The diversion of non-ferrous metal prices also caused domestic companies to take a wait-and-see attitude toward purchasing non-ferrous metal products. Manufacturing companies have delayed purchasing as much as possible to digest inventories, which has resulted in poor sales of domestic non-ferrous metal products and a serious decline in economic efficiency.
The global financial crisis has also had a significant negative impact on the non-ferrous metals recycling industry. First, the company stopped production, employees were on holiday, and employees were unemployed. According to the survey report of China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association Recycling Metals Branch, when the crisis is most severe, more than 85% of the production capacity of regenerated refined copper is in the state of production shutdown, and over 70% of copper production from waste copper production is in the state of production shutdown; recycled aluminum and recycled lead. Discontinued production capacity reached 50% and 60% respectively. More than 90% of companies have layoffs, and 300,000 people are facing unemployment. Second, the company suffered serious losses. When the crisis was severe, the direct decline in the price of non-ferrous metals directly led to a drop in the price of scrap metal, and most scrap metal prices fell by more than 50% for a time.
The non-ferrous metals industry has achieved a good momentum of development In response to the impact of the international financial crisis, China has timely issued a package of economic stimulus plans including investment of 4 trillion yuan and ten industrial restructuring and revitalization plans. Among them, the non-ferrous metal industry adjustment and revitalization plan is one of the “Top Ten Industrial Adjustment and Rejuvenation Plansâ€. The "Reform and Revitalization Plan for Nonferrous Metals Industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "Planning") that will be issued on February 25, 2009, will serve as an action plan for the comprehensive response measures for the non-ferrous metals industry from 2009 to 2011. In the past one year, related government departments issued timely implementation rules such as collection and storage of non-ferrous metals, export tax rebates, direct purchase pilots, and non-ferrous metal enterprises mergers and elimination of backward production capacity and other industrial policies will also be introduced one after another.
From the effect of implementation, China's non-ferrous metals industry has gone out of the shadow of the international financial crisis, showing a good momentum of development.
Non-ferrous metal production has stabilized and picked up gradually. From the non-ferrous metal production point of view, cumulative output of non-ferrous metals since March 2009 has continued to increase year-on-year. From October onwards, cumulative production of the 10 non-ferrous metals products has emerged from a negative growth and has seen positive growth. In November, the monthly production of 10 non-ferrous metals products reached 2.7 million tons, the highest level in history. Cumulative production of copper and aluminum increased by 20% and over 15% over the same period in 2008. From the point of view of industrial added value, non-ferrous metal mining and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry reversed the slow growth and negative growth of the same period of the previous year from January to February in 2009. Since March, the growth rate has been accelerating, and the growth rate in November has been It reached 18.8% and 11.9%, both higher than the average industrial growth rate.
The overall profitability of non-ferrous metals companies has gradually recovered. According to statistics, from January to October of 2009, 70 key liaison enterprises of the Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association achieved a profit of 11.74 billion yuan after deducting profits and losses, which was a 66.1% decrease from the same period of last year, and a decrease of 9.8 percentage points from January to September. Among them, a profit of 2.28 billion yuan was realized in October. From January to October of 2009, the profits of 20 copper-nickel companies reached a profit of 6.274 billion yuan, a decrease of 53.96% year-on-year, of which copper-nickel companies achieved a profit of 779 million yuan in October; after the profits and losses of 21 aluminum enterprises reached a profit of 13.18 Billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 87.14%, of which aluminum companies realized profits of 985 million yuan in October; 15 lead-zinc enterprises realized a profit of 2.556 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.42%, of which lead and zinc companies realized profits of 241 million yuan in October; Thirteen rare tungsten and molybdenum tin-bismuth rare-earth enterprises made a profit of 1.492 billion yuan after deducting profits and losses, a year-on-year decrease of 80.0%. Among them, profits of tungsten, molybdenum tin-bismuth rare earth rare earth enterprises in October were offset by profits of 274 million yuan.
In short, under the influence of a package of economic stimulus plans, especially the “Regulation of Nonferrous Metals Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Planâ€, China’s non-ferrous metals industry has been out of its predicament. The next step is to further adjust the industrial structure while maintaining the rapid development of non-ferrous metals. , change the mode of development, improve international competitiveness." The main policy options available are:
Improve the collection and storage mechanism to achieve rolling development of storage and storage funds. In view of the high price of non-ferrous metal products, the growth of the non-ferrous metal industry has achieved a better task, and non-ferrous metal purchases and storage should be suspended. Non-ferrous metal storage institutions can even sell and collect non-ferrous metals in order to stabilize the non-ferrous metal market that is currently over-speculative. Profit-making funds can be used for future storage needs and achieve rolling development.
Dynamic adjustment of export tax rebate policy. Prior to the financial crisis, in order to limit the export of "two high and one capital" products, China basically eliminated the export subsidy policy for non-ferrous metal products, and even imposed export taxes on some non-ferrous import and export products. After the financial crisis broke out, China adjusted these policies in a timely manner. The purpose of adjusting the export tax policy is to maintain growth. At present, the task of "guaranteeing growth" for non-ferrous metals has been completed better. Therefore, we can consider adjusting the export tax rebate policy for non-ferrous metal products. In this way, anti-dumping and anti-subsidy problems in the international community can also be avoided frequently, and at the same time, it is also conducive to the transformation of the non-ferrous metals industry.
Actively promote electrolytic aluminum direct purchase pilot. According to the actual situation of electrolytic aluminum with high voltage level and low transmission cost, the direct reduction of electro-aluminum direct purchase of electricity over the network fee will be implemented, and the direct electricity purchase policy will be implemented.
We will increase the investment control of non-ferrous metal smelting projects and accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity. On the one hand, it is necessary to set higher standards for energy conservation, environmental protection, land, and technology to control the construction of new projects. Strict implementation of national industrial policies, no new construction, expansion of electrolytic aluminum, alumina projects. On the other hand, speed up the elimination of backward production capacity. Eliminated the backward production capacity of lead and zinc smelting according to regulations, and established a complete withdrawal mechanism for backward production capacity.
Formulate relevant preferential policies and vigorously support enterprises in implementing the "going out" strategy. The uneven distribution of global mineral resources has determined that no country in the world can completely self-sufficient mineral resources. With the increasing dependence on non-ferrous metal mineral resources in China, there must be a global perspective to resolve the shortage of non-ferrous metal mineral resources, which determines that China Nonferrous Metals Mining must vigorously implement the “going out†development strategy. After a long period of sustained and rapid development, China's non-ferrous metals industry has formed a strong technical, financial, equipment and human resources advantages, in the international community has a certain relative competitive advantage. Implementation of the "go global" strategy will also require cooperation and cooperation with international multinational mining companies, and will continue to enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese companies in dynamic cooperation and competition. To this end, it is recommended that the relevant national authorities expedite the formulation of specific implementation policies for the “going out†strategy, including simplified approval procedures for overseas resource development projects, support for fiscal, taxation, and financial policies, ** management protection mechanisms, and establishment of relevant central government departments. Coordination mechanism.
According to the "National Economic Industry Classification," the non-ferrous metals industry includes nonferrous metal mining and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries.
Changes in competitiveness of non-ferrous metals industry analysis of international market share: China's lead, tin, zinc in the original international market share is high, but in recent years has been greatly reduced, aluminum and copper in the international market share rose first and then decline, but On the whole, it is still at a low level, and only nickel's international market share keeps rising. The international market share of the six non-ferrous metals was generally not very high. After reaching a high of 8.2% in 2004, it quickly declined. The market share in 2007 was only 4.1%, which was only half of 2007. The international market share of China's non-ferrous metals industry is not commensurate with China's position as the world's largest producer and consumer of non-ferrous metal products.
Trade competitiveness index: China's non-ferrous metals industry has a relatively low trade competitiveness index, except for 1990 and 1991 which are positive, and other years are negative, and remain at a relatively low level. Trade competitiveness in 2000 and 2001 The index is below -0.4, remained at -0.3 from 2002 to 2006, and dropped to -0.4 again in 2007. This shows that the international competitiveness of China's non-ferrous metals industry is still very weak.
Non-ferrous metals industry international competitiveness International market share: Russia, Canada, and Australia are the major exporters of non-ferrous metals products. Russia and Canada’s international market share generally exceeds 10%, and Australia’s international market share remains at around 8%. The international market share of China's non-ferrous metal products also has a certain scale, ranking before other major countries such as Brazil, Germany, and the United States. From the trend point of view, the international market share of the non-ferrous metals industry in most countries has remained stable, but China's international market share has been declining. This is in marked contrast to Japan's rising international market share.
Trade competitiveness index: Australia, Russia, Canada, South Africa and Brazil have significant trade competitiveness advantages. The trade competitiveness index of the United States, Japan, Germany, France, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and China is basically negative and does not have trade competitiveness. Advantage. Compared with other countries, China is in the middle. In recent years, the UK’s non-ferrous metals industry’s trade competitiveness index has continued to rise, while China’s has declined. In 2007, the British non-ferrous metals industry’s trade competitiveness index exceeded China for the first time. In terms of comprehensive international market share and trade competitiveness index, the non-ferrous metals industry in Russia, Canada, Australia, and Brazil and South Africa has strong international competitiveness. Non-ferrous metal industries in other major countries, including China, do not currently have International competitive advantage. On the whole, China's non-ferrous metals industry is in the mid-stream level in the international market competition, but compared with other countries, the international competitiveness of the non-ferrous metals industry has remained stable or rising. In recent years, the international competitiveness of China's non-ferrous metals industry has declined. It is a place that needs special attention.
The impact of the financial crisis on the competitiveness of the non-ferrous metals industry As outlined above, most indicators that reflect the competitiveness of the non-ferrous metals industry do not perform well. This is related to the long-standing exploration of mineral resources in the non-ferrous metals industry, lagging resources, low industrial concentration, overcapacity, extensive economic growth methods, and arduous tasks in energy conservation and emission reduction. In addition, non-ferrous metal products have special derivative financial commodity attributes, which makes the non-ferrous metal industry show severe inadequacies in the financial crisis.
First, the price of non-ferrous metal products has been significantly “divingâ€. According to the non-ferrous metal spot market monitoring of large and medium-sized cities, by the end of 2008, the average prices of copper, aluminum, and zinc were 29,574 yuan, 11,928 yuan, and 10,125 yuan per ton, respectively, a decrease of 51.42%, 35.34%, and 50.39 compared with the same period in 2007. %. Second, the output of non-ferrous metal products has grown slowly, and the growth rate of industrial added value has slowed down. According to statistics, from January to December 2008, the output growth of non-ferrous metal products fell sharply from month to month, even with negative growth. At the same time, the non-ferrous metal mining industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling and processing industries have also seen a significant drop in the added value of the above-scale enterprises, especially in November, the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by only 0.5. %. Third, the non-ferrous metals companies have increased their inventories, and their economic returns have fallen sharply. The deepening of the international financial crisis has caused a significant reduction in the import and export trade of the non-ferrous metals industry. The diversion of non-ferrous metal prices also caused domestic companies to take a wait-and-see attitude toward purchasing non-ferrous metal products. Manufacturing companies have delayed purchasing as much as possible to digest inventories, which has resulted in poor sales of domestic non-ferrous metal products and a serious decline in economic efficiency.
The global financial crisis has also had a significant negative impact on the non-ferrous metals recycling industry. First, the company stopped production, employees were on holiday, and employees were unemployed. According to the survey report of China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association Recycling Metals Branch, when the crisis is most severe, more than 85% of the production capacity of regenerated refined copper is in the state of production shutdown, and over 70% of copper production from waste copper production is in the state of production shutdown; recycled aluminum and recycled lead. Discontinued production capacity reached 50% and 60% respectively. More than 90% of companies have layoffs, and 300,000 people are facing unemployment. Second, the company suffered serious losses. When the crisis was severe, the direct decline in the price of non-ferrous metals directly led to a drop in the price of scrap metal, and most scrap metal prices fell by more than 50% for a time.
The non-ferrous metals industry has achieved a good momentum of development In response to the impact of the international financial crisis, China has timely issued a package of economic stimulus plans including investment of 4 trillion yuan and ten industrial restructuring and revitalization plans. Among them, the non-ferrous metal industry adjustment and revitalization plan is one of the “Top Ten Industrial Adjustment and Rejuvenation Plansâ€. The "Reform and Revitalization Plan for Nonferrous Metals Industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "Planning") that will be issued on February 25, 2009, will serve as an action plan for the comprehensive response measures for the non-ferrous metals industry from 2009 to 2011. In the past one year, related government departments issued timely implementation rules such as collection and storage of non-ferrous metals, export tax rebates, direct purchase pilots, and non-ferrous metal enterprises mergers and elimination of backward production capacity and other industrial policies will also be introduced one after another.
From the effect of implementation, China's non-ferrous metals industry has gone out of the shadow of the international financial crisis, showing a good momentum of development.
Non-ferrous metal production has stabilized and picked up gradually. From the non-ferrous metal production point of view, cumulative output of non-ferrous metals since March 2009 has continued to increase year-on-year. From October onwards, cumulative production of the 10 non-ferrous metals products has emerged from a negative growth and has seen positive growth. In November, the monthly production of 10 non-ferrous metals products reached 2.7 million tons, the highest level in history. Cumulative production of copper and aluminum increased by 20% and over 15% over the same period in 2008. From the point of view of industrial added value, non-ferrous metal mining and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry reversed the slow growth and negative growth of the same period of the previous year from January to February in 2009. Since March, the growth rate has been accelerating, and the growth rate in November has been It reached 18.8% and 11.9%, both higher than the average industrial growth rate.
The overall profitability of non-ferrous metals companies has gradually recovered. According to statistics, from January to October of 2009, 70 key liaison enterprises of the Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association achieved a profit of 11.74 billion yuan after deducting profits and losses, which was a 66.1% decrease from the same period of last year, and a decrease of 9.8 percentage points from January to September. Among them, a profit of 2.28 billion yuan was realized in October. From January to October of 2009, the profits of 20 copper-nickel companies reached a profit of 6.274 billion yuan, a decrease of 53.96% year-on-year, of which copper-nickel companies achieved a profit of 779 million yuan in October; after the profits and losses of 21 aluminum enterprises reached a profit of 13.18 Billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 87.14%, of which aluminum companies realized profits of 985 million yuan in October; 15 lead-zinc enterprises realized a profit of 2.556 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.42%, of which lead and zinc companies realized profits of 241 million yuan in October; Thirteen rare tungsten and molybdenum tin-bismuth rare-earth enterprises made a profit of 1.492 billion yuan after deducting profits and losses, a year-on-year decrease of 80.0%. Among them, profits of tungsten, molybdenum tin-bismuth rare earth rare earth enterprises in October were offset by profits of 274 million yuan.
In short, under the influence of a package of economic stimulus plans, especially the “Regulation of Nonferrous Metals Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Planâ€, China’s non-ferrous metals industry has been out of its predicament. The next step is to further adjust the industrial structure while maintaining the rapid development of non-ferrous metals. , change the mode of development, improve international competitiveness." The main policy options available are:
Improve the collection and storage mechanism to achieve rolling development of storage and storage funds. In view of the high price of non-ferrous metal products, the growth of the non-ferrous metal industry has achieved a better task, and non-ferrous metal purchases and storage should be suspended. Non-ferrous metal storage institutions can even sell and collect non-ferrous metals in order to stabilize the non-ferrous metal market that is currently over-speculative. Profit-making funds can be used for future storage needs and achieve rolling development.
Dynamic adjustment of export tax rebate policy. Prior to the financial crisis, in order to limit the export of "two high and one capital" products, China basically eliminated the export subsidy policy for non-ferrous metal products, and even imposed export taxes on some non-ferrous import and export products. After the financial crisis broke out, China adjusted these policies in a timely manner. The purpose of adjusting the export tax policy is to maintain growth. At present, the task of "guaranteeing growth" for non-ferrous metals has been completed better. Therefore, we can consider adjusting the export tax rebate policy for non-ferrous metal products. In this way, anti-dumping and anti-subsidy problems in the international community can also be avoided frequently, and at the same time, it is also conducive to the transformation of the non-ferrous metals industry.
Actively promote electrolytic aluminum direct purchase pilot. According to the actual situation of electrolytic aluminum with high voltage level and low transmission cost, the direct reduction of electro-aluminum direct purchase of electricity over the network fee will be implemented, and the direct electricity purchase policy will be implemented.
We will increase the investment control of non-ferrous metal smelting projects and accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity. On the one hand, it is necessary to set higher standards for energy conservation, environmental protection, land, and technology to control the construction of new projects. Strict implementation of national industrial policies, no new construction, expansion of electrolytic aluminum, alumina projects. On the other hand, speed up the elimination of backward production capacity. Eliminated the backward production capacity of lead and zinc smelting according to regulations, and established a complete withdrawal mechanism for backward production capacity.
Formulate relevant preferential policies and vigorously support enterprises in implementing the "going out" strategy. The uneven distribution of global mineral resources has determined that no country in the world can completely self-sufficient mineral resources. With the increasing dependence on non-ferrous metal mineral resources in China, there must be a global perspective to resolve the shortage of non-ferrous metal mineral resources, which determines that China Nonferrous Metals Mining must vigorously implement the “going out†development strategy. After a long period of sustained and rapid development, China's non-ferrous metals industry has formed a strong technical, financial, equipment and human resources advantages, in the international community has a certain relative competitive advantage. Implementation of the "go global" strategy will also require cooperation and cooperation with international multinational mining companies, and will continue to enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese companies in dynamic cooperation and competition. To this end, it is recommended that the relevant national authorities expedite the formulation of specific implementation policies for the “going out†strategy, including simplified approval procedures for overseas resource development projects, support for fiscal, taxation, and financial policies, ** management protection mechanisms, and establishment of relevant central government departments. Coordination mechanism.