Since August 2011, the volume and price of steel trade have fallen, and enterprises have been forced to stop bankruptcy due to the shortage of funds. Industry practitioners expect financial policy to be loose. Although the People's Bank of China did not cut the bank reserve requirement ratio in January as predicted by analysts, some economists believe that monetary policy is quietly relaxing, and the positive impact on China's steel demand will gradually emerge. The RRR adjustment cannot be overdue. On February 7, Li Zhibin of the Shijiazhuang Branch of Minsheng Bank analyzed that it is not unexpected that the central bank is not eager to reduce the deposit rate. The conditions for the full conversion of domestic monetary policy to easing are not yet mature. "At present, the country is 'adjusting structure and promoting growth'. Although loose monetary policy can boost the economy to some extent and increase income, excessive liquidity release will likely drive the disorderly expansion of investment scale and weaken. Previous national regulation and control results, the inflation of individual structural products rebounded, and efforts to stabilize prices may be lost. Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing jointly released data showing that in January this year, China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index PMI 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, higher than market expectations, to some extent alleviated the market's concerns about the possible slowdown of the Chinese economy, which is also a reason for the central bank's delay in deposit rate. "Therefore, when the state introduces monetary policy, it must take into account the actual needs of the economy and society and balance each other." Li Zhibin said, "At present, although the domestic CPI has declined, it is still high, and it is still difficult to determine whether it can continue to remain low. Running, once again reducing the RRR, will undoubtedly appear to be too hasty. In fact, the domestic economy has a realistic demand for lowering the deposit rate. The current high price level, mainly concentrated in food and agricultural products, is a structural problem. For the property market with large bubbles, the state's regulatory attitude is resolute, and the trend of returning home prices to reasonable prices is irreversible. At the same time, the domestic financial market continues to be sluggish, investor confidence is frustrated, and difficulties in financing domestic financing have emerged. Previous private lending Because of the difficulties in fundraising, the sword has gone astray. In addition, due to external factors such as the global economic contraction caused by the European and American debt crisis, domestic economic development has slowed down. In order to promote the investment and development of the real economy, the deposit reserve ratio is lowered. Increase social currency liquidity and boost market signals To promote economic development, it is indeed time to take action. On February 8, some analysts said that under the gloom of the international economic crisis, China’s economic growth and external environment have deteriorated, and domestic demand and growth have become macroscopic. The preferred target of regulation and control. Currently, the market generally expects that during this year, especially in the first half of the year, the “two rates†will be implemented, that is, the deposit reserve ratio and the financial institution loan interest rate reduction measures, the monetary policy will be more relaxed and conducive to investment. At the same time, the national macro The change in regulatory orientation is also conducive to the increase in steel demand in the next stage. Under the main tone of “guarantee growthâ€, China’s substantial easing measures have been introduced, and monetary easing has kicked off. Loose monetary policy has become a trend , “guarantee growth†It has become a global concerted action, and major countries in the world have successively implemented loose monetary policies. Following the reduction of the deposit reserve ratio in China in the fourth quarter of 2011, the Bank of India also lowered the deposit reserve for the first time in late January this year, after a lapse of three years. The rate is 0.5 percentage points. The Brazilian central bank has been from August 2011 to January this year. 4 consecutive rate cut. "For some time, Australia's central bank, the European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate announcement. The Fed also announced not long ago that the de facto zero interest rate policy will be extended to the end of 2014. Not only that, but the market also expects the Fed to launch a third round of quantitative easing monetary policy. It is expected that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will adopt further measures to loosen monetary policy in the near future. It is expected that Japan will continue to implement loose monetary policy, including the purchase of various bonds. "As a result of the 'monet looseness' of the world's major economies, the analysts are bound to support the global commodity market, including steel and its raw materials markets. At the beginning of February, Luo Fuwan, a senior economist at CLSA in Shanghai, urged everyone not to pay too much attention to China's RRR: the change in China's RRR does not mean that the policy is relaxed or tightened. On the contrary, it is only a kind of “ The means of reversal, that is, the foreign exchange that is poured into the Chinese economy, especially the foreign exchange brought by the huge trade surplus. Luo Fuwan thinks that it is not very meaningful to reduce the deposit rate because China can set up loans for every bank. The quota, bypassing the deposit rate limit, controls the scale of the loan. After reading the loan quota, it was learned that the total lending of the Chinese banking industry reached 7.47 trillion yuan last year, and the total lending target for this year was slightly increased to about 8 trillion yuan. -- The Chinese government is already implementing a moderately loose policy. In the later period, the steel market steadily rebounded. In the context of recent Asian interest rate cuts and world finances tending to be loose, the first impact on the domestic steel market is market confidence, which in turn affects spot price movements. Before the Spring Festival, some merchants and small steel mills urgently need to withdraw funds to cope with the annual customs, plus the climatic factors Demand is blocked, so all kinds of steel stocks are basically in a slight decline. On February 9, analysts believe that in the context of easing policy, there will be four major factors driving the price market to pick up: First, the debt crisis triggered The panic atmosphere has subsided. After the second half of 2011, the biggest inhibitor of the steel market decline was the spread of panic in the debt crisis. Concerned about the collapse of the euro zone, which has plagued the global financial system and its real economy. It is a serious economic recession. However, after a period of “run-in periodâ€, the market has psychological digestion and measures to prevent it. For example, in recent months, the growth rate of steel production has slowed down markedly, and steel traders and consumer companies have generally destocked. Even the annual “winter storage†of steel has not been carried out; on the other hand, the European debt crisis has begun to show some light. Recently, Greece and investors reached a preliminary agreement, the bond depreciated 50%, lower interest rates below 4%, and Under the conditions of Greece’s reduced spending, it has received new assistance from EU partners and the International Monetary Fund, which makes it possible to Avoid “hard default†and bring hope to the settlement of the Italian debt problem. If the progress is smooth, the euro zone will be freed from the collapse prospects, and the market will regain confidence. Second, the release of steel production capacity has been greatly suppressed. According to statistics, the average daily output of crude steel in the middle of January 2012 was 1,668,600 tons, down 22,000 tons, or 1.3%. From the data, it can be seen that the output in mid-January not only remained low for 8 consecutive years. It was below the daily average of 1.7 million tons, and there was a significant drop of 22,000 tons, which was slightly better than expected. This shows that the large-scale production reduction of domestic steel mills is still continuing, and the supply side is benefiting again. Production continues to decline. This means that the positive role of the supply side will continue to strengthen, and taking into account factors such as expected improvement, small recovery in demand, firm cost, and loose capital trend, the steel price recovery may still be large in the later period. Third, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded in January, and the Chinese economic correction process gradually stabilized. In January, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index had a PMI of 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Different from the rebound of PMI in December last year, it mainly reflects the seasonal effect of early production of enterprises brought by the Spring Festival. The rise of PMI in January has anti-season characteristics. Historical data shows that the PMI of the Spring Festival in the past few years has generally declined significantly, but the PMI in January this year is not falling, indicating that the momentum of manufacturing growth is still relatively strong. At the same time, after December of last year, the PMI index continued to rise slightly in January, indicating that the Chinese economic recovery process has gradually stabilized. Fourth, the construction and construction of affordable housing will be significantly increased. It is worth noting that as an important measure to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize growth, the construction and construction of affordable housing in the country will increase significantly this year. In the fourth quarter of 2011, the Ministry of Construction signed the 2012 Housing Security Work Responsibility Letter with all provinces and cities, and plans to start construction of more than 7 million sets of affordable housing. In addition, the projects under construction carried over in the past two years, the overall 2012 The number of affordable housing under construction will reach 18 million sets. It can be seen that if there is no accident, the substantial construction of the affordable housing in the new year will be significantly higher than in 2011, which will be a strong support for the relevant steel demand. The analyst said: "At present, steel mills are already in an extremely difficult situation. On the one hand, due to long-term upside down, contract orders have been greatly reduced, and steel mills have their own funds largely swallowed up by inventory. On the other hand, downstream industries are not in a strong demand, but direct supply is instead. To become another bleeding point in steel mills, the country needs to “stable growthâ€, steel mills need to “stable marketâ€, and market price increases are the best way to digest inventories. Under the current circumstances, a large amount of resources are backlogged in the hands of steel mills, and the flow of resources The sex is limited, so it is unlikely that it will go down sharply again.†“The market operation shows that the downward pressure on the Chinese steel market is tending to ease, and the weak situation is likely to change.†Analysts encourage steel traders, “have confidence in the market. According to the inventory survey statistics, as of February 10, 2012, the social inventory of five major steel products in the 26 major markets, including rebar, wire rod, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil and plate, was 18.489 million tons. Compared with the previous week, it increased by 1.118 million tons, and the increment decreased. The inventory increased for the seventh consecutive week, and the increment exceeded 1 million tons for three consecutive weeks. Compared with the second week after the Spring Festival last year, February 25, 2011, the total inventory was slightly lower by 42,000 tons. In terms of varieties, the stocks of the five major varieties continued to rise across the board, but the increments all declined. The increase in rebar is still the largest, an increase of 680,000 tons from the previous week. The total inventory of rebar in the country exceeded 8 million tons for the first time, reaching 8.106 million tons, setting a record high since the “net†inventory statistics. Among the 26 statistical cities, 25 have risen, and Hangzhou has the most obvious increase, exceeding 100,000 tons. The market increments in Beijing, Wuhan, Guangzhou and Shenyang are also obvious. Wire rods increased by 252,000 tons from the previous week, and all statistical city stocks increased, with the most obvious increase in markets such as Guangzhou, Chengdu and Shenyang. Among the plate varieties, the stock of hot-rolled coils increased more, an increase of 121,000 tons from the previous week. Except for the increase in Lecong market, other markets have increased slightly, and individual market inventories have declined. In addition, the plate and cold-rolled coils increased by 39,000 tons and 27,000 tons respectively from the previous week, and the increments have all dropped. After the Lantern Festival last week, the terminal demand did not appear to be released by the market. The overall market turnover remained sluggish, and the business mentality was hit. The delay in the release of demand has also led to a significant increase in steel social inventories. Although the domestic steel stocks increase during the Spring Festival this year is relatively low, but the increase of more than 1 million tons in the three consecutive weeks after the holiday is a rare phenomenon in the past years. At present, although the total inventory of more than 18 million tons is not the highest in history, considering the lower crude steel production level in January-February this year, the inventory-to-production ratio is already at a relatively high level, and the market pressure is relatively high. From the inventory trend over the years, the peak of total inventory tends to occur at the end of February or early March. In the short term, domestic demand is still difficult to improve significantly, and inventory is still expected to challenge historical highs.
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