Industry analysts believe that the prospects of investment in the electrolytic aluminum industry are not very optimistic. Only after the fundamentals of the industry have improved will there be good investment opportunities. Currently, the industry's merger and reorganization plan can only bring trading opportunistic opportunities to the industry.
According to the Securities Daily report on September 10, the data show that the recent domestic average loss of electrolytic aluminum has narrowed, mainly due to the slight increase in aluminum prices. As for the production cost of electrolytic aluminum, the prices of raw materials have not changed much. It is expected that the cost of electrolytic aluminum will remain stable in the short term.
From January to July 2010, the cumulative output of electrolytic aluminum in China reached 9.546 million tons, an increase of 41.9% year-on-year. LME electrolytic aluminum prices are currently falling, and inventory levels remain high. In 2010, it is estimated that there will be 4.168 million tons of newly-added electrolytic aluminum production capacity, which will increase by 40% year-on-year. The original electrolytic aluminum manufacturers in China have restricted production and reduced production, and new production capacity has been put into production. In the second half of 2010, the domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory pressure will further increase.
Due to the low concentration of the electrolytic aluminum industry, the top five electrolytic aluminum companies account for only 25%. There are many private enterprises, and the oversupply volume has been very large. Therefore, on September 6, 2010, the State Council issued the “Opinions of the State Council on Promoting Enterprise Merger and Reorganization†that pointed out that for the electrolytic aluminum industry, it once again urged superior enterprises to implement strong alliances and cross- Regional mergers and acquisitions, overseas mergers and acquisitions and investment cooperation.
In May, the National Development and Reform Commission requested the cancellation of the preferential electricity prices for electrolytic aluminum and other industries. The price increase standard for restricted enterprises will be increased from the current 0.05 yuan per kilowatt-hour to 0.10 yuan. At present, the domestic electricity consumption per ton of electrolytic aluminum is 14,200 kWh, the average price of electricity is increased by RMB 0.10, the cost of aluminum per ton has increased by over RMB 1,400, and the average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum has reached over RMB 1,000.00. However, domestic aluminum prices fell from more than 17,000 yuan in mid-April to less than 15,000 yuan in June, and spot prices fell to a low of nearly 14,000 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum producers face severe operating conditions.
Industry analysts believe that the prospects of investment in the electrolytic aluminum industry are not very optimistic. Only after the fundamentals of the industry have improved will there be good investment opportunities. Currently, the industry's merger and reorganization plan can only bring trading opportunistic opportunities to the industry.
Since the publication of the Opinions, Jiaozuo Wanfang has risen for two consecutive days. Yesterday the stock price rose by 0.32 yuan, or 1.41%. At present, Jiaozuo Wanfang and China Aluminum have a willingness to integrate. China Aluminum is the largest shareholder of Jiaozuo Wanfang, and there is competition with Jiaozuo Wanfang. The direction of business integration between the two companies is clear, but there is no specific timetable.
CICC recently released a research report, suggesting that energy-saving emission reductions will bring trading opportunities to the aluminum sector. This year is the last year of the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€. To achieve the goal of reducing energy consumption by 20%, we must achieve a 5% energy saving target in the remaining 4 months this year, far higher than the average of the past four years. To fulfill the "Eleventh Five-Year" goal of energy-saving emission reduction is still arduous task, do not rule out the same energy-intensive electrolytic aluminum industry as the next production limit may be possible. This measure is expected to form a support for the price of electrolytic aluminum, which will benefit the electrolytic aluminum leading enterprises.
The report said that due to the low prices of aluminum, the Chinese aluminum industry was expected to lose money in the third quarter, but if the production limit makes the price of aluminum stable at 15,500 yuan / ton or more, Chinalco's third-quarter loss is expected to be reversed. In addition, Chinalco Coal Injection is also expected to be realized in the second half of the year to provide short-term catalysts for stocks. In addition, Shenhuo Shares, Jiaozuo Wanfang, Zhongfu Industry, Shanlv Aluminum> Nanshan Aluminum, and Yunlv Aluminum will also benefit from the restriction of electrolytic aluminum production capacity.
According to the Securities Daily report on September 10, the data show that the recent domestic average loss of electrolytic aluminum has narrowed, mainly due to the slight increase in aluminum prices. As for the production cost of electrolytic aluminum, the prices of raw materials have not changed much. It is expected that the cost of electrolytic aluminum will remain stable in the short term.
From January to July 2010, the cumulative output of electrolytic aluminum in China reached 9.546 million tons, an increase of 41.9% year-on-year. LME electrolytic aluminum prices are currently falling, and inventory levels remain high. In 2010, it is estimated that there will be 4.168 million tons of newly-added electrolytic aluminum production capacity, which will increase by 40% year-on-year. The original electrolytic aluminum manufacturers in China have restricted production and reduced production, and new production capacity has been put into production. In the second half of 2010, the domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory pressure will further increase.
Due to the low concentration of the electrolytic aluminum industry, the top five electrolytic aluminum companies account for only 25%. There are many private enterprises, and the oversupply volume has been very large. Therefore, on September 6, 2010, the State Council issued the “Opinions of the State Council on Promoting Enterprise Merger and Reorganization†that pointed out that for the electrolytic aluminum industry, it once again urged superior enterprises to implement strong alliances and cross- Regional mergers and acquisitions, overseas mergers and acquisitions and investment cooperation.
In May, the National Development and Reform Commission requested the cancellation of the preferential electricity prices for electrolytic aluminum and other industries. The price increase standard for restricted enterprises will be increased from the current 0.05 yuan per kilowatt-hour to 0.10 yuan. At present, the domestic electricity consumption per ton of electrolytic aluminum is 14,200 kWh, the average price of electricity is increased by RMB 0.10, the cost of aluminum per ton has increased by over RMB 1,400, and the average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum has reached over RMB 1,000.00. However, domestic aluminum prices fell from more than 17,000 yuan in mid-April to less than 15,000 yuan in June, and spot prices fell to a low of nearly 14,000 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum producers face severe operating conditions.
Industry analysts believe that the prospects of investment in the electrolytic aluminum industry are not very optimistic. Only after the fundamentals of the industry have improved will there be good investment opportunities. Currently, the industry's merger and reorganization plan can only bring trading opportunistic opportunities to the industry.
Since the publication of the Opinions, Jiaozuo Wanfang has risen for two consecutive days. Yesterday the stock price rose by 0.32 yuan, or 1.41%. At present, Jiaozuo Wanfang and China Aluminum have a willingness to integrate. China Aluminum is the largest shareholder of Jiaozuo Wanfang, and there is competition with Jiaozuo Wanfang. The direction of business integration between the two companies is clear, but there is no specific timetable.
CICC recently released a research report, suggesting that energy-saving emission reductions will bring trading opportunities to the aluminum sector. This year is the last year of the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€. To achieve the goal of reducing energy consumption by 20%, we must achieve a 5% energy saving target in the remaining 4 months this year, far higher than the average of the past four years. To fulfill the "Eleventh Five-Year" goal of energy-saving emission reduction is still arduous task, do not rule out the same energy-intensive electrolytic aluminum industry as the next production limit may be possible. This measure is expected to form a support for the price of electrolytic aluminum, which will benefit the electrolytic aluminum leading enterprises.
The report said that due to the low prices of aluminum, the Chinese aluminum industry was expected to lose money in the third quarter, but if the production limit makes the price of aluminum stable at 15,500 yuan / ton or more, Chinalco's third-quarter loss is expected to be reversed. In addition, Chinalco Coal Injection is also expected to be realized in the second half of the year to provide short-term catalysts for stocks. In addition, Shenhuo Shares, Jiaozuo Wanfang, Zhongfu Industry, Shanlv Aluminum> Nanshan Aluminum, and Yunlv Aluminum will also benefit from the restriction of electrolytic aluminum production capacity.