The National Energy Administration’s first announcement of China’s energy economic operation on the 26th shows that in the first three quarters of this year, due to the impact of the world financial crisis and China’s economic cycle, the country’s energy and economic operations have experienced “slow downs, gradual stabilization, and increased motivation. The characteristics of the trend is getting better.
From January to September, the total energy production in the country totaled 2.01 billion tons of standard coal, an increase of 9% year-on-year.
From the perspective of coal-fired oil and gas, the total supply of coal is stable and loose, and only some coals are tightly supplied during local time. From January to September, the country's cumulative production of raw coal was 2.14 billion tons, an increase of 10.3%.
The balance of power supply was more than enough, and the growth rate dropped sharply. From January to September, the cumulative power generation of power plants above designated size was 265.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. The growth rate rebounded by 1.1 percentage points from the negative to positive in January-August.
The oil and gas market is generally stable. From January to September, the country's cumulative production of crude oil was 140 million tons, down 0.5% year-on-year. The net import of crude oil was 140 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. The output of gasoline and diesel was 53 million tons and 103 million tons, respectively, an increase of 13.6% and 2.4%. Natural gas production increased by 8.1% to 63.16 billion cubic meters.
The National Energy Administration's forecast on the operation of the energy economy believes that the energy operation in the fourth quarter will continue to develop positively in the third quarter. In addition, the basic data for the same period last year is lower, and the year-on-year growth rate of energy production, transportation and sales will continue to rise, but the ratio is higher. Growth will not be too fast.
China's energy operation in the fourth quarter will continue to be positive and positive
Zhou Xi'an, director of the Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration, said at the energy economic operation conference held on the 26th that China's energy economic operation in the fourth quarter is expected to continue its positive and positive development trend in the third quarter, plus the base figure in the same period last year. Low, the year-on-year growth rate of energy production, transportation and sales will continue to rise, but the chain growth will not be very fast.
Zhou Xi'an analyzed that in the fourth quarter of last year, the production of major coal-consuming industries entered a trough, and coal consumption shrank sharply. In the fourth quarter of this year, coal consumption was lower than the base year. At the same time, industrial demand boost and winter storage coal started at the end of October will continue until the first quarter of next year, which will directly drive demand for thermal coal. The resumption of production in some small coal mines will provide a moderate increase in the coal market supply, but the coal resources integration and corporate restructuring will be promoted everywhere. It is expected that coal supply and demand will continue to maintain a relatively balanced pattern in the fourth quarter, and market coal prices are expected to remain relatively stable or slightly fluctuating.
Zhou Xi'an believes that considering the continuity of economic activities and the seasonal factors of electricity consumption, the growth rate of national electricity demand will continue to rise in the next few months. In addition, the base of the same period last year is very low. It is expected that the national electricity supply and demand will be balanced in the fourth quarter. Surplus. In terms of regions, the East and South regions are generally balanced, and the supply and demand in the Northeast, North China, Central China, and Northwest China are basically balanced with a slight surplus. The annual utilization rate of power generation equipment is about 4,500 hours, which is lower than in previous years.
Zhou Xi'an analysis pointed out that as the economic recovery is further strengthened, the demand for the main oil industry will also increase. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of domestic refined oil in the fourth quarter will be 53 million to 54 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%~ 13%. Affected by the national refined oil price tax reform policy, large-scale new construction and reconstruction and refining and chemical conversion projects in some provinces and regions were completed and put into production during the year, and the supply of domestic refined oil resources was still relatively abundant. International oil prices on the $80 per barrel high will have an impact on China's oil market and operating conditions.
It is understood that the energy economic operation conference is the first energy situation analysis meeting held since the establishment of the National Energy Administration, and will be held in each quarter in the future.
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