The photovoltaic industry, which is showing signs of recovery following a series of positive policy signals from the government, now faces a critical question: will it once again fall into the trap of overcapacity due to reckless investment? Will smaller companies with outdated technology and production capacity be revived? In this uncertain environment, how can PV companies effectively manage risks and ensure sustainable development? These are pressing issues that require careful thought and continuous monitoring.
Wu Dacheng emphasized that the restructuring of the photovoltaic industry should focus on consolidating production capacity. "We must avoid expanding production simply for short-term profits," he said. From a market perspective, after two major fluctuations, investment should become more rational and strategic.
Notably, the government seems to have anticipated these challenges. The recently issued "Regulations for the Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology clearly states that enterprises failing to meet the standards will no longer receive policy support such as export tax rebates or domestic application incentives.
Liu Hanyuan believes that temporary overcapacity is not necessarily a bad thing. "It's a natural feature of a market economy. It creates pressure and drives innovation, meets consumer demand, and helps reduce costs while improving efficiency." According to him, one of the key points of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee was to fully recognize the role of the market in resource allocation and economic development. He argues that the government should not intervene too much, but rather respect market laws and let the industry self-regulate.
In addition, distributed photovoltaic power generation, which is gaining popularity, still has several issues to address. Although the subsidy policy has been established, there are practical challenges in its implementation. For example, who will invest in and maintain these projects? Building a photovoltaic power station requires significant capital and has a long payback period, so the sustainability of the investors is crucial. How will the electricity be sold? Will surplus power be guaranteed to be purchased by the grid? Policies need to ensure that the grid reliably acquires all generated electricity. Also, will subsidies be paid on time? In the early stages of large-scale ground-mounted power plants, there were cases of delayed payments, and it remains to be seen whether similar issues will affect distributed systems. Addressing these concerns is essential for the long-term success of the industry.
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